Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 60.8%

VGK: 39.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.43

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	COL	VGK
Season SV%	0.919	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	25	22	3	88.0%	2.99	3	-0.01
VGK	Carter Hart	30	29	1	96.7%	2.36	0	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.41
1	VGK	15	1	1.03
2	COL	22	0	1.18
2	VGK	4	0	0.10
3	COL	14	0	0.78
3	VGK	13	2	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown