Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-05-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 41.5%

COL: 58.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.16

COL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	VGK	COL
Season SV%	0.883	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	21	20	1	95.2%	1.89	2	0.89
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	24	2	92.3%	3.39	2	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	1	1.42
1	COL	10	0	0.28
2	VGK	15	0	1.26
2	COL	11	2	1.05
3	VGK	12	1	0.71
3	COL	8	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown