Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2026-10-01 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EDT
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 38.5%
TBL: 61.5%
Expected Goals
NYR: 1.26
TBL: 4.39
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | NYR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.615 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-11-29 | NYR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-12 | TBL 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-17 | NYR 4 - 0 TBL | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-04-07 | NYR 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-10-01 at 7:00 PM EDT.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.