Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-10-03 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals @ 7:00 PM EDT
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 51.7%
WSH: 48.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 1.81
WSH: 2.97
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-10-03 at 7:00 PM EDT.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
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