Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-12-19 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 32.8%
TBL: 67.2%
Expected Goals
TOR: 1.18
TBL: 4.72
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Anthony Stolarz - 10-10-3 | 0.893 SV% | 3.28 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | TOR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.905 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.882 | 0.937 |
| GAA | 3.51 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | TOR 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-02-25 | TBL 4 - 2 TOR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-08 | TOR 2 - 0 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | TBL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-01-20 | TOR 5 - 3 TBL | TOR | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-12-19 at 7:00 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
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