Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2027-01-04 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:30 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 53.3%
TOR: 46.7%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.63
TOR: 3.57
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
TOR
Anthony Stolarz - 10-10-3 | 0.893 SV% | 3.28 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.905 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.970 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 3.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | TOR 0 - 4 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2027-01-04 at 7:30 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.