Model Performance
See how our NHL prediction model performs: accuracy, Brier scores, calibration, and error metrics across thousands of games.
To understand each metric, read Understanding Performance Metrics . To apply this in practice, view today's NHL predictions, our NHL playoff odds, and in-game win probability charts.
Model Performance
📊 Understanding Performance Metrics
Games: 229 | Accuracy: 56.3% | Brier Score: 0.2503 | RMSE Total: 2.368
Current Matchups
Calibration (Win Probability Deciles)
| Bin | Count | Mean Pred | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 28.9% | 50.0% |
| 3 | 7 | 37.2% | 14.3% |
| 4 | 41 | 46.4% | 51.2% |
| 5 | 136 | 54.8% | 56.6% |
| 6 | 43 | 63.7% | 58.1% |
Team Calibration (Home, Top 15 by Volume)
| Team | Count | Mean Pred | Observed | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 11 | 49.2% | 54.5% | -5.3% |
| SJS | 10 | 54.1% | 70.0% | -15.9% |
| NSH | 9 | 49.7% | 33.3% | +16.4% |
| PHI | 9 | 57.7% | 55.6% | +2.2% |
| TOR | 9 | 54.6% | 55.6% | -1.0% |
| BUF | 9 | 55.0% | 55.6% | -0.6% |
| ANA | 8 | 55.0% | 87.5% | -32.5% |
| VAN | 8 | 50.4% | 25.0% | +25.4% |
| MTL | 8 | 55.4% | 37.5% | +17.9% |
| TBL | 8 | 59.2% | 75.0% | -15.8% |
| DET | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% | +4.4% |
| FLA | 8 | 58.7% | 62.5% | -3.8% |
| SEA | 8 | 53.6% | 50.0% | +3.6% |
| BOS | 7 | 49.9% | 85.7% | -35.8% |
| VGK | 7 | 50.8% | 28.6% | +22.2% |
Team Calibration (Pred vs Observed)
Mean Pred Observed