Articles
Deep-dive NHL analytics articles: model explainers, calibration studies, upset analysis, and playoff odds breakdowns based on our forecasting engine.
Use these articles alongside today's NHL predictions, the NHL playoff odds hub, and model performance to understand both the numbers and the edges behind them.
Calibration Outliers â Early 2025â26 (Home Teams)
Which home teams look most over/underâpredicted so far this season based on observed win rates vs model probabilities.
Upset Economy â Early 2025â26
How often do underdogs cash early this season? Teamâperspective bins (<40% pregame) with observed win rates and modelâfair ROI.
OT Volatility â Early 2025â26
How often games reach OT and how frequently underdogs prevail â by pregame and endâofâregulation probabilities.
Close-Game DNA â Vegas Golden Knights (2025â26)
Early-season look at how Vegas performs in tight games using our in-game winâprobability dataset (one-goal margins, overtime, and underdog wins).
Understanding Performance Metrics
Learn how to interpret model accuracy, Brier scores, calibration curves, and other performance metrics on our Performance page
Understanding NHL Win Probability Models
A deep dive into how we build accurate win probability predictions for NHL games