Through their first 10 games, Vegas is 6–4 — about where a team with their talent should sit. The margins are what stand out.
The early returns (through October 28)
Half of Vegas's games have been decided by a single goal, and they're 3–2 in those, a 60% clip. That tracks with their average pregame win probability of 54.9%: they're performing close to what the model expected, just doing it in tight games.
Overtime has gone the other way — 1–2 in games that reached OT or a shootout. Three-on-three is close to a coin flip over a full season, so a 1–2 start there says little.
One gap in the sample: Vegas hasn't yet trailed entering the third period. Not once. They've led, been tied, or already put the game away. So we don't know how this group responds to a third-period deficit — that test is still coming.
They've also won twice as underdogs, and their games have averaged zero lead changes. When Vegas gets ahead, they stay ahead; when they fall behind, they haven't had to climb back.
What it means
Ten games is too few to conclude much, but the early shape is a team that's comfortable in tight games and rarely in chaotic ones. The overtime record is worth watching — if it holds, it's the kind of thing that separates a division title from a wild card by April — but for now it's noise.
The real test arrives the first time Vegas trails a hot team after two periods. Every team faces that game eventually. How the Knights handle it will say more than anything in the first ten.
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