New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-10-04 • O2 Czech Republic

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.7%

NJD: 48.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.58

NJD: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	19	4	82.6%	3.03	2	-0.97
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	31	30	1	96.8%	2.65	1	1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs NJD: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.47
1	NJD	15	1	0.95
2	BUF	20	1	1.53
2	NJD	15	0	0.66
3	BUF	21	0	0.64
3	NJD	7	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8