Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-10-08 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 46.1%

BOS: 53.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.38

BOS: 3.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	24	4	85.7%	3.52	3	-0.48
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	35	29	6	82.9%	4.64	3	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • FLA at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	FLA
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	21	1	1.58
1	BOS	15	1	1.36
2	FLA	15	0	1.09
2	BOS	11	2	0.86
3	FLA	18	2	1.97
3	BOS	18	0	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.7