Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 43.1%

TOR: 56.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.75

TOR: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	48	48	0	100.0%	4.60	2	4.60
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	27	26	1	96.3%	3.41	2	2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	2	1.91
1	TOR	25	0	1.48
2	MTL	7	0	0.85
2	TOR	21	0	1.30
3	MTL	8	0	0.65
3	TOR	31	2	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7