Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 6 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

VAN: 39.4%

CGY: 60.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.61

CGY: 3.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VAN

Arturs Silovs - 3-0-1 | 0.881 SV% | 2.47 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Arturs Silovs	26	20	6	76.9%	2.83	3	-3.17
CGY	Dan Vladar	24	19	5	79.2%	2.49	3	-2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VAN at home vs CGY: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	19	3	1.81
1	CGY	8	2	0.99
2	VAN	4	0	0.11
2	CGY	17	0	0.92
3	VAN	13	0	0.57
3	CGY	15	0	0.41
4	VAN	0	0	0.00
4	CGY	3	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 3.8