Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-10-09 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 50.0%
COL: 50.0%
Expected Goals
VGK: 4.07
COL: 3.74
Total Goals
Median: 7.6
Over 5.5: 77%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | VGK | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.854 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs COL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | VGK 5 - 6 COL | COL | VGK |
| 2025-10-31 | VGK 2 - 4 COL | COL | VGK |
| 2025-04-08 | COL 3 - 2 VGK | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-27 | COL 2 - 1 VGK | COL | COL |
| 2024-10-09 | VGK 8 - 4 COL | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:48 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:15 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 18:32 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 18:57 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 04:15 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 05:49 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 17:32 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 19:46 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 06:59 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 08:29 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 13:54 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:24 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 12.0
Expected: 7.8
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 4.1 - 3.7