Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 38.8%

COL: 61.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.23

COL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	1.11
1	COL	17	0	0.64
2	VGK	7	0	0.46
2	COL	10	1	0.79
3	VGK	7	2	1.21
3	COL	15	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.2 - 3.1