Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 39.0%

COL: 61.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.49

COL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	32	28	4	87.5%	2.68	2	-1.32
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	21	13	8	61.9%	2.78	2	-5.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	1.11
1	COL	17	0	0.64
2	VGK	7	0	0.46
2	COL	10	1	0.79
3	VGK	7	2	1.21
3	COL	15	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 8 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.5 - 3.6