Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 51.8%

PIT: 48.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.94

PIT: 5.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 53%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

PIT

J. Blomqvist

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	28	22	6	78.6%	2.89	3	-3.11
PIT	J. Blomqvist	32	29	3	90.6%	2.93	2	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.30
1	PIT	10	0	0.45
2	DET	15	1	0.82
2	PIT	16	2	1.34
3	DET	12	0	0.82
3	PIT	15	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 5.2