Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 45.7%

CBJ: 54.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.73

CBJ: 3.75

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	33	31	2	93.9%	2.96	1	0.96
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	26	23	3	88.5%	2.02	0	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs CBJ: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	CBJ 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-10-11	MIN 4 - 7 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2024-10-19	CBJ 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-10-10	MIN 3 - 2 CBJ	MIN	CBJ
2024-01-06	CBJ 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	0.76
1	CBJ	10	0	0.71
2	MIN	9	0	0.45
2	CBJ	21	0	1.34
3	MIN	10	0	0.81
3	CBJ	15	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7