Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions
2024-10-11 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CAR: 39.6%
TBL: 60.4%
Expected Goals
CAR: 3.37
TBL: 3.52
Total Goals
Median: 7.8
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 65%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | CAR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.875 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs TBL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | TBL 2 - 4 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2026-02-26 | CAR 5 - 4 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6 - 4 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-11 | CAR 4 - 1 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3 - 2 CAR | TBL | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:32 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:33 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:44 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.4 - 3.5
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