Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2024-10-11 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 53.7%

TBL: 46.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.72

TBL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	1	1.44
1	TBL	12	0	0.80
2	CAR	17	3	2.08
2	TBL	5	0	0.54
3	CAR	9	1	0.57
3	TBL	14	3	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9