St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-11 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

VGK: 77.4%

STL: 22.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.68

STL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 33%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	22	19	3	86.4%	1.94	1	-1.06
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	24	4	85.7%	2.93	2	-1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VGK at home vs STL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	STL
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.14
1	STL	11	0	0.43
2	VGK	15	1	1.40
2	STL	7	1	0.72
3	VGK	9	0	0.40
3	STL	15	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8