Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 45.3%

CAR: 54.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.06

CAR: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	29	2	93.5%	1.51	0	-0.49
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	33	30	3	90.9%	3.67	5	0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	CAR
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	1	1.17
1	CAR	13	0	0.43
2	TBL	19	3	1.89
2	CAR	22	0	0.89
3	TBL	10	1	0.61
3	CAR	12	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9