Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TBL: 50.4%

CAR: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.86

CAR: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	1	1.17
1	CAR	13	0	0.43
2	TBL	19	3	1.89
2	CAR	22	0	0.89
3	TBL	10	1	0.61
3	CAR	12	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0