Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-01-07 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 49.6%
CAR: 50.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.94
CAR: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 4.8
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.857 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | TBL 2 - 4 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2026-02-26 | CAR 5 - 4 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6 - 4 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-11 | CAR 4 - 1 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3 - 2 CAR | TBL | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:08 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9
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