New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

WSH: 39.8%

NJD: 60.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.01

NJD: 4.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	28	5	84.8%	3.74	4	-1.26
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	32	29	3	90.6%	2.86	2	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	17	0	0.76
1	NJD	15	2	1.20
2	WSH	13	2	1.48
2	NJD	17	1	1.43
3	WSH	11	0	0.62
3	NJD	8	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 4.0