New York Islanders at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 0 New York Islanders

Win Probability

DAL: 81.5%

NYI: 18.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.01

NYI: 2.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	34	0	100.0%	3.22	1	3.22
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	27	24	3	88.9%	2.86	1	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	0	0.73
1	NYI	16	0	0.82
2	DAL	15	0	1.10
2	NYI	16	1	1.13
3	DAL	11	1	1.03
3	NYI	20	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 4.0 - 2.2