Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-10-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 50.7%
PHI: 49.3%
Expected Goals
CGY: 4.76
PHI: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 78%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | CGY | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.955 | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PHI: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | CGY 5 - 1 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-02 | PHI 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2025-03-04 | PHI 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2024-10-12 | CGY 6 - 3 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-01-06 | PHI 3 - 2 CGY | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:43 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 05:37 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 18:11 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 14:41 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 07:05 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 18:16 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 17:11 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 15:34 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 14:46 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.5
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 4.8 - 2.7