Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.9%

CHI: 46.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.87

CHI: 4.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	20	15	5	75.0%	1.86	2	-3.14
CHI	Petr Mrazek	38	36	2	94.7%	3.44	2	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • EDM at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	EDM 3 - 1 CHI	EDM	EDM
2026-01-12	CHI 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-11-01	EDM 3 - 2 CHI	EDM	EDM
2025-02-05	CHI 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-11	CHI 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.06
1	CHI	11	0	0.53
2	EDM	17	1	0.99
2	CHI	9	1	0.62
3	EDM	24	1	1.39
3	CHI	5	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.9 - 4.2