Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-10-14 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 50.6%
PIT: 49.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 4.32
PIT: 3.95
Total Goals
Median: 8.0
Over 5.5: 82%
Over 6.5: 73%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | MTL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.903 | 0.850 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | PIT 4 - 3 MTL | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-12-20 | MTL 4 - 0 PIT | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-11 | PIT 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | PIT |
| 2024-12-12 | MTL 2 - 9 PIT | PIT | MTL |
| 2024-11-02 | PIT 3 - 1 MTL | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:54 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 16:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 18:16 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 02:51 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:26 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:23 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:47 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 11:32 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:50 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 8.3
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 4.3 - 4.0