New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 58.1%

NJD: 41.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.35

NJD: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 35%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	35	32	3	91.4%	3.43	3	0.43
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	31	30	1	96.8%	2.23	1	1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs NJD: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.71
1	NJD	17	1	0.70
2	OTT	20	1	0.87
2	NJD	18	0	1.40
3	OTT	16	0	0.65
3	NJD	15	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1