Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 42.0%

VGK: 58.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.21

VGK: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.18
1	VGK	13	1	1.19
2	TBL	16	1	1.71
2	VGK	12	0	0.58
3	TBL	14	1	0.83
3	VGK	9	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1