Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 46.8%

VGK: 53.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.46

VGK: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	88.0%	2.35	1	-0.65
VGK	Adin Hill	25	21	4	84.0%	3.72	3	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.18
1	VGK	13	1	1.19
2	TBL	16	1	1.71
2	VGK	12	0	0.58
3	TBL	14	1	0.83
3	VGK	9	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1