Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

WSH: 57.6%

DAL: 42.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	24	22	2	91.7%	2.50	2	0.50
DAL	Casey DeSmith	26	23	3	88.5%	2.91	3	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	6	0	0.38
1	DAL	9	0	0.37
2	WSH	18	1	1.47
2	DAL	12	2	1.21
3	WSH	12	2	1.07
3	DAL	15	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2