New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 0 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 48.4%

NYI: 51.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.77

NYI: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	34	34	0	100.0%	2.41	0	2.41
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	29	1	96.7%	2.39	2	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	NYI
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	NYI
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	8	0	0.32
1	NYI	9	0	0.38
2	STL	15	0	1.15
2	NYI	19	0	1.21
3	STL	9	1	0.59
3	NYI	12	0	0.63
4	STL	3	1	0.32
4	NYI	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9