San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-10-18 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 8 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

WPG: 81.4%

SJS: 18.6%

Expected Goals

WPG: 5.21

SJS: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 45%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	19	3	86.4%	1.15	0	-1.85
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	36	28	8	77.8%	4.21	2	-3.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WPG at home vs SJS: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	WPG 1 - 6 SJS	SJS	WPG
2026-03-01	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-11-07	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-02-24	WPG 2 - 1 SJS	WPG	WPG
2024-12-17	SJS 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	2	1.52
1	SJS	10	0	0.19
2	WPG	19	0	1.38
2	SJS	10	0	0.47
3	WPG	13	0	1.31
3	SJS	15	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 8.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 8 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 5.2 - 3.0