Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-10-19 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 43.9%
TBL: 56.1%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.28
TBL: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 8.1
Over 5.5: 79%
Over 6.5: 68%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.891 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | OTT |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:50 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:21 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 01:59 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 10:39 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 13:20 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:13 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:56 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 06:17 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:11 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 3.4
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