Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

OTT: 53.2%

TBL: 46.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.30

TBL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.77
1	TBL	8	0	0.37
2	OTT	14	1	1.26
2	TBL	15	0	0.78
3	OTT	8	0	0.46
3	TBL	14	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4