Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-10-19 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 52.4%
TBL: 47.6%
Expected Goals
OTT: 4.17
TBL: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 59%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.879 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-04 | TBL 4 - 3 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-19 | OTT 5 - 4 TBL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:21 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 01:50 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:56 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:13 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 13:20 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 10:39 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 01:59 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:11 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 06:17 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.3
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 4.2 - 3.1