Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 65.3%

EDM: 34.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.19

EDM: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	30	1	96.8%	3.05	2	2.05
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	20	4	83.3%	3.46	3	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	4	0	0.18
1	EDM	15	0	0.90
2	DAL	15	1	1.18
2	EDM	19	1	0.93
3	DAL	19	2	2.10
3	EDM	16	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7