Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 6 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

NJD: 49.5%

WSH: 50.5%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.58

WSH: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	37	31	6	83.8%	3.43	3	-2.57
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	26	5	83.9%	3.21	3	-1.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NJD at home vs WSH: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	16	1	0.89
1	WSH	20	3	1.86
2	NJD	12	0	1.04
2	WSH	13	0	0.75
3	NJD	13	1	0.85
3	WSH	10	0	0.40
4	NJD	3	1	0.43
4	WSH	6	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 6 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3