Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 52.7%

VAN: 47.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.87

VAN: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 36%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	32	29	3	90.6%	1.82	0	-1.18
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	26	26	0	100.0%	3.27	1	3.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	PHI
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.71
1	VAN	17	0	0.69
2	PHI	22	0	1.29
2	VAN	19	0	0.94
3	PHI	15	1	1.26
3	VAN	7	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0