Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 57.2%

WSH: 42.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.15

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	25	4	86.2%	1.94	0	-2.06
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	18	17	1	94.4%	1.81	1	0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PHI at home vs WSH: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	1.04
1	WSH	12	0	0.54
2	PHI	7	0	0.54
2	WSH	15	0	0.73
3	PHI	8	0	0.23
3	WSH	16	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0