Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2024-10-22 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 65.5%
TBL: 34.5%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.85
TBL: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 8.5
Over 5.5: 87%
Over 6.5: 79%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.873 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.792 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:02 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 14:09 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 00:51 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 07:34 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 09:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:48 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:45 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 13.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.9 - 3.1
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