Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 59.3%

TBL: 40.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.46

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	37	29	8	78.4%	3.71	5	-4.29
TBL	Jonas Johansson	35	30	5	85.7%	3.17	2	-1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	0	0.48
1	TBL	26	2	1.98
2	NJD	19	1	1.28
2	TBL	16	3	1.44
3	NJD	16	1	1.41
3	TBL	7	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1