Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 62.3%

TBL: 37.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.56

TBL: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	0	0.48
1	TBL	26	2	1.98
2	NJD	19	1	1.28
2	TBL	16	3	1.44
3	NJD	16	1	1.41
3	TBL	7	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 3.4