New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 New York Rangers

Win Probability

MTL: 40.4%

NYR: 59.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.00

NYR: 3.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	45	38	7	84.4%	5.68	4	-1.32
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	21	2	91.3%	2.13	1	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	1	1.06
1	NYR	18	0	1.66
2	MTL	9	0	0.58
2	NYR	20	1	1.50
3	MTL	9	0	0.49
3	NYR	27	3	2.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.9