Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 46.5%

LAK: 53.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.07

LAK: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	35	34	1	97.1%	3.51	2	2.51
LAK	David Rittich	30	24	6	80.0%	3.02	5	-2.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs LAK: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	VGK 2 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	2	1.13
1	LAK	20	0	0.96
2	VGK	14	1	0.61
2	LAK	17	1	0.81
3	VGK	10	2	1.29
3	LAK	21	1	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2