Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

BOS: 45.3%

DAL: 54.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.86

DAL: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	27	5	84.4%	3.64	1	-1.36
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	25	2	92.6%	3.36	4	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-19	BOS 4 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	2	1.50
1	DAL	15	0	1.30
2	BOS	10	0	0.68
2	DAL	16	0	1.02
3	BOS	18	2	1.19
3	DAL	10	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4