St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 62.1%

STL: 37.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.79

STL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	27	22	5	81.5%	2.78	2	-2.22
STL	Jordan Binnington	41	40	1	97.6%	4.14	5	3.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	2	1.19
1	STL	13	0	0.72
2	TOR	24	1	1.55
2	STL	11	1	0.91
3	TOR	21	2	1.41
3	STL	11	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9