St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-10-24 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 53.3%
STL: 46.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.69
STL: 2.31
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | TOR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | TOR 3 - 2 STL | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-02 | STL 4 - 2 TOR | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-24 | TOR 1 - 5 STL | STL | TOR |
| 2024-02-19 | STL 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | STL |
| 2024-02-13 | TOR 4 - 1 STL | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:31 | STL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:07 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:58 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:20 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:42 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:45 | STL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.7 - 2.3