Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 59.0%

MIN: 41.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.38

MIN: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	18	14	4	77.8%	2.84	3	-1.16
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	26	24	2	92.3%	1.94	0	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.99
1	MIN	7	0	0.28
2	TBL	10	0	0.82
2	MIN	12	0	0.66
3	TBL	7	0	0.13
3	MIN	10	3	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8