Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

BUF: 68.5%

DET: 31.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.44

DET: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	25	22	3	88.0%	2.08	0	-0.92
DET	Alex Lyon	39	34	5	87.2%	3.19	1	-1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • BUF at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	DET
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.27
1	DET	11	0	0.62
2	BUF	19	0	0.79
2	DET	19	0	1.11
3	BUF	12	1	1.13
3	DET	8	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7