Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 7 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

PHI: 60.6%

MIN: 39.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.34

MIN: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 4.8

Over 5.5: 46%

Over 6.5: 37%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	26	21	5	80.8%	3.06	2	-1.94
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	23	16	7	69.6%	3.53	4	-3.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs MIN: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	MIN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	MIN
2025-10-18	PHI 2 - 1 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-12-14	MIN 4 - 1 PHI	MIN	MIN
2024-10-26	PHI 7 - 5 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-01-12	MIN 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	8	0	0.55
1	MIN	14	0	0.96
2	PHI	6	0	0.33
2	MIN	22	2	1.89
3	PHI	22	4	2.65
3	MIN	6	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 8.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 7 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 4.3 - 3.7