Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TBL: 57.0%

WSH: 43.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.16

WSH: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.66
1	WSH	12	0	0.50
2	TBL	14	0	0.52
2	WSH	23	0	0.99
3	TBL	8	1	0.63
3	WSH	11	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6