Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

CGY: 44.7%

WPG: 55.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.44

WPG: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	35	30	5	85.7%	3.26	2	-1.74
WPG	Eric Comrie	29	26	3	89.7%	2.66	0	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	9	0	0.54
1	WPG	20	0	1.00
2	CGY	23	0	1.13
2	WPG	6	0	0.30
3	CGY	20	0	1.00
3	WPG	19	2	1.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3