Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

DAL: 73.2%

CHI: 26.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.47

CHI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	22	2	91.7%	3.60	3	1.60
CHI	Petr Mrazek	30	26	4	86.7%	5.31	7	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • DAL at home vs CHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	22	3	2.16
1	CHI	12	1	1.17
2	DAL	12	1	0.87
2	CHI	14	1	1.49
3	DAL	11	3	2.27
3	CHI	17	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.5 - 2.8