San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

VGK: 64.1%

SJS: 35.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.59

SJS: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	26	23	3	88.5%	2.42	1	-0.58
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	42	35	7	83.3%	3.60	0	-3.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • VGK at home vs SJS: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	26	0	1.42
1	SJS	7	0	0.29
2	VGK	20	0	1.68
2	SJS	18	1	1.35
3	VGK	10	0	0.50
3	SJS	15	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8