Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 70.5%

MTL: 29.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.05

MTL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.96
1	MTL	15	1	1.37
2	PHI	11	0	0.42
2	MTL	15	1	1.40
3	PHI	19	1	1.12
3	MTL	6	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9