Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 58.0%

FLA: 42.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.43

FLA: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	26	5	83.9%	2.82	2	-2.18
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	26	2	92.9%	1.73	0	-0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.20
1	FLA	9	1	0.57
2	BUF	18	0	0.96
2	FLA	14	1	1.16
3	BUF	12	0	0.56
3	FLA	16	0	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9