Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 0 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

VGK: 51.9%

CGY: 48.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.29

CGY: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	16	16	0	100.0%	1.56	0	1.56
CGY	Dan Vladar	38	33	5	86.8%	3.49	2	-1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • VGK at home vs CGY: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	7	0	0.49
1	CGY	10	0	0.69
2	VGK	18	0	0.95
2	CGY	9	0	0.24
3	VGK	19	2	2.05
3	CGY	13	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9