Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-10-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 0 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 50.5%

PHI: 49.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.22

PHI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	19	17	2	89.5%	2.67	2	0.67
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	25	0	100.0%	2.53	1	2.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs PHI: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	BOS 5 - 1 PHI	BOS	BOS
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	1	1.37
1	PHI	11	1	0.94
2	BOS	15	0	0.85
2	PHI	12	0	0.36
3	BOS	5	0	0.31
3	PHI	10	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 0 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0